The International Energy Outlook 2013 by the US Energy Information Administration projects that from 2010 to 2040, global energy use will rise by 56 per cent, with petroleum and other liquid fuels at 115 million barrels per day.
Sounds like staggering statistics, but we don’t have to look hard to see what will influence the change.
The world is still recovering from the recession of 2008 – 2009. Progress has been slower than normal in the United States. Diesel dropped from $4.50 per gallon to $1.00 during that time and is up to about $3.00 per gallon now. Europe slid back into recession in 2012, and Japan is experiencing its third round of it in as many years. However, as the economy improves, fuel consumption will increase.
United Nations predicts that the population will expand another 2 billion by 2040. That alone will increase fuel demand exponentially, just to sustain our current standard living conditions.
As developing countries continue to improve their standards of living, their need for fuel will rise. China and India have remained strong in economic growth over the last two decades. US fuel exports to Latin America have doubled since 2008 and South America is anticipated to see the quickest growth, following Asia, as their use may climb as high as 10 million barrels per day by 2020.
While it is evident that demand will not be slowing down anytime soon, it leads us to wonder if fuel market availability and supply will be able to keep up.
In a study of world projections to 2030 for energy demand, supply and technology, The National Petroleum Council concluded that while resources are not likely to run out, the risks that will impact oil development are mounting. Risks such as:
- Political instability
- Civil conflicts
- Energy subsidies
- Severe weather
- Limited access to resources
Even though the social, political and economical factors that influence the fuel market are forecasting higher fuel prices, partnering with the right fuel distributor can help you mitigate the risks associate with fuel price instability.